The Exploding Heads use FIFA to determine exactly when Liverpool will win the Premier League. The 2011-12 season for Liverpool started with such promise but soon proved a massive disappointment. Luck matters more than you think, both in life and in soccer. There have been countless investigations into the role of fortune in football. German researchers found that luck was the most important factor in deciding which team won a given match, while a bunch of other findings, summarized in the book "The Numbers Game," suggest that the underdog is likely to win way more often in soccer -- just south of 50% of the time -- than in any of the other major sports. In a 2018 study, another German...
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